WEEKLY LETTER · 25 OCT – 31 OCT 2026
Observations
To see Mining as a whole, we bundled the 100 most actively traded companies of the industry into an equal-weighted index: each counts the same, the global group as much as the small producer. This index lost 12.7% over the last month and 5.4% over three months. Since October 2024 it still shows a gain of 172.5%. That long stretch needs reading with care: the index holds the companies that trade most today. Those that collapsed along the way are more likely to be missing, so the climb probably looks too large.
−12.7%
Index · last month
−5.4%
Index · three months
+172.5%
Since October 2024
24%
Above 200-day line
The decline runs right across the industry. Many investors judge a share’s direction by its average price, for instance over 50 or 200 trading days. Only 24% of the companies were still above their 200-day line, and just 12% above their 50-day line. 9% stood at a 52-week low and 0% at a 52-week high. Among the five largest sub-industries, Metal-Copper lost least at −8.9%, and 62% of its companies were above the 200-day line. Gold Mining came to −11.2%, Precious Metals to −11.8%, Metal-Diversified to −13.2% and Diversified Minerals to −15.7%. Individually, Brazilian Rare Earths (−47.8%) and Elevra Lithium (−40.0%) were hit hardest. These figures do not say why.
MINING INDEX – TECHNICAL PICTURE
−14.0% vs. 50-day line · −11.4% vs. 200-day line · RSI 28 · ADX 39
Technically, on 30 Oct the index stood 14.0% below the 50-day line and 11.4% below the 200-day line, which is itself still rising. The ADX, a gauge of how pronounced a trend is, reads 39: a clear downward trend. The RSI runs from 0 to 100 and shows how one-sided recent moves have been. At 28 the index is below 30, a level considered “oversold”; the same applies to 15% of the companies individually. It remains inside the Bollinger Bands, a band around the average price that widens and narrows with volatility: the lower edge is 1.9% below, the upper edge 16.9% above.
On a weekly view, the 9-week average is 1.5% below the 21-week average, with the index below both. Since March 2026 the weekly lows have formed a rising line, now 1.5% below the index, and the weekly highs a flat one, 31.3% above. Recent volatility gives a statistical range for the next 10 trading days of 5.5% below to 5.9% above: in seven out of ten cases the level ended such a period inside it. That describes how far moves usually reach, not their direction.
Follow the strategy: wikifolio | eToro | Collective2
Conflicts of interest. The publisher of this letter discloses the following existing and potential conflicts of interest:
- The publisher holds, or may hold, positions in the financial instruments discussed — either directly or through the model portfolios he manages.
- The publisher runs model portfolios and trading strategies on the platforms of social trading providers (wikifolio / eToro / Collective2) and receives performance-based or volume-based compensation from those platforms in return. Increased attention for the securities discussed may indirectly affect this compensation.
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- The publisher offers paid subscriptions to trading signals via the social trading providers.
- The publisher receives no benefits from the companies discussed and has no business relationship with them.
Own positions: at the time of preparation (1 Nov 2026) the publisher held, in his own account, no positions in the securities mentioned in this issue. Holdings of the model portfolios are not covered by this statement.
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Publisher: Alec Fuchs – fuchsinvest.com